At just over ten years old, crypto's largest asset Bitcoin (BTC) has made a name for itself every bit a volatile asset, every bit shown by its past price activity. December, in particular, has seen a notable clamper of this volatility with price moving more than xxx% since 2022.

As 2022 nears its cease, Bitcoin looks back on a standout year in terms — up over 100% from the yearly lows in February of around $iii,350. Past the terminate of June, BTC/USD found itself upward near $xiii,800. And so subsequently several months of consolidation and subsequent selling pressure, BTC hit vi-months lows of around $six.5K in November only to recover back to the $7Ks range.

Crypto space participants frequently await for different narratives to make sense of diverse toll moves, as well as try to make predictions on time to come price action based on historical trends.

One such narrative involves speculation that Bitcoin moves significantly in December, in line with the Christmas and New year holiday flavor. Historical price data indeed shows this to be the case, particularly over the past 4 years.

So is Bitcoin set for a volatile December once again? Let's accept a look at some historical data for possible clues.

December 2022

BTC USD daily chart

BTC USD daily nautical chart. Source: TradingView

Starting with data iv years agone, December 2022 saw Bitcoin shoot upwardly more than 34% in the month of December.

Bitcoin began the month with a ruddy day, wicking downwards to $349 on Dec. two. The following several days, however, hosted positive cost action, leading to Bitcoin'southward Dec 2022 loftier of $469, $119 higher than its December. two low.

Bitcoin rode a bullish trend for the first one-half of the month, topping out nigh December. 15, followed by consolidation and selling pressure during the latter half of the calendar month.

December 2022

BTC USD daily chart

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

A year later, Bitcoin saw gains of more than 35% during the same period. Just unlike in 2022, all the same, Bitcoin held a very slight upward trend for the first half of December 2022, posting small daily candles filled with very little price activity.

Similar to 2022, Bitcoin hit its Dec 2022 low at the beginning of the calendar month, dropping to a cost of $743. Information technology was not until the 2d half of the month that BTC ramped upwardly its volatility,

ultimately hitting $one,010 by Jan. ane, 2022.

December 2022

BTC USD daily chart

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

On Dec. one, 2022, BTC wicked down to $nine,410 earlier going on its historic ride to $19,700, tallying a price motion of more than than 109%.

This 2022 Dec ride coincided with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) both launching their corresponding physically-settled BTC futures trading products.

The CBOE launched its Bitcoin futures trading product on Dec. 10. Then Bitcoin reached its all-time high near $19,700 on December. 17, 2022, right when the CME launched its own cash-settled Bitcoin futures trading product.

Similar to 2022, the BTC price increased for the start half of the month. Subsequently its all-time high, Bitcoin suffered a steep correction during the 2nd one-half of the calendar month, which ultimately started a acquit market that would last more than a year.

December 2022

BTC USD daily chart

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Last year, price activity was different the previous years, nonetheless. While BTC did provide over 35% in price motility over the class of December 2022, the net price stayed the same.

The asset's cost wicked upward to $4,275 on Dec. 2, followed by selling force per unit area until the middle of the month where it tapped its ultimate behave marketplace bottom at $3,125.

During the second half of the month, Bitcoin proceeded to rally all the way back up to $4,275 before closing out the month with downside consolidation.

Essentially, Bitcoin saw both a 35% decline and a subsequent 35% rally in the same 31 day menstruum, leaving the market looking back on an overall volatile December.

Theories explaining the "Santa Claus rally" in markets

The last four years of price data clearly show notable activity during the holiday calendar month of December. A toll motility of more than 30% is significant, regardless of the nugget.

The data also shows the heart of the month as significant in terms of topping or bottoming price activity, with the exception of 2022.

Merely while there'due south no definite caption for this seemingly seasonal volatility, Cointelegraph market analyst filbfilb says that traditional markets also oftentimes see volatility effectually this time — a phenomenon sometimes referred to as the "Santa Claus rally."

He explained:

"The Santa Claus Rally refers to the tendency for the stock market to rally over the last weeks of December into the New year's day. Several theories exist for its being, including increased holiday shopping, optimism fueled by the holiday spirit, or institutional investors settling their books before going on vacation."

Crypto trader and Twitter personality Jacob Canfield too weighed in on Bitcoin's December cost action, telling Cointelegraph:

"While it is easy to create narratives for Bitcoin, I am of the opinion that there is no 'seasonality' to Bitcoin when information technology comes to the time of the year. Although nosotros have seen significant upward moves before, we've likewise seen significant downside moves also."

BTC USD monthly chart

BTC USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView (via Jacob Canfield)

Canfield did, nevertheless, betoken out a unlike concept based on big players and tax implications.

"One theory that I have heard is that professional traders and institutions take their profits going into January to hedge for their taxes for the new fiscal year," he said. "Then while this doesn't explain we see upward price moves in Bitcoin, it may explicate why we encounter a sell-off in January."

Regardless of the rationale, December has hosted significant toll movements each yr since 2022. Will this year proceed the trend?

The views and opinions expressed hither are solely those of (@benjaminpirus) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading motion involves risk. Y'all should conduct your own inquiry when making a decision.